How much did COVID-19 really change how long people live—and what does that mean for public pension plans? A new report compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute sheds light on post-pandemic mortality trends, and the findings could affect every trustee’s outlook on plan funding and assumptions. However, here’s the short version, along with a link to an audio explainer on the TEXPERS' Deep Dive podcast.

The story:
According to the RPEC 2025 Mortality Improvement Update, actuaries have paused updating the official longevity forecast (the “MP scale”) until they receive five years of stable post-pandemic data—likely not before 2029. That means trustees and administrators are working without their usual crystal ball when making mortality-based projections.

Why it matters:
Retiree deaths have nearly returned to pre-COVID levels, yet they remain about 1.3% higher than expected when compared to pre-pandemic models. Whether that gap fades—or becomes the new normal—will shape long-term plan liabilities.

The hidden trap:
Many pension funds still use older mortality tables, like Pri-2012. Applying that same 1.3% adjustment to outdated tables can seriously understate liabilities. Depending on the plan’s base year, the real difference could be 2% or more—a costly oversight for trustees.

The bottom line:
Experts don’t agree on what happens next. Some predict longevity will bounce back; others believe the pandemic permanently shifted life expectancy. Until the data stabilizes, trustees should confirm which mortality table their actuary uses and understand the “base year challenge.”

Listen to the full breakdown:
Mortality Mess: Why Pension Trustees Can’t Trust the 1.3% COVID Longevity Gap and the Base-Year Trap — a 15-minute TEXPERS Deep Dive podcast episode explaining what the report really means for Texas public funds.

FOLLOW TEXPERS ON FACEBOOK, X, THREADS, AND LINKEDIN FOR THE LATEST NEWS ABOUT TEXAS' PUBLIC PENSION INDUSTRY.   

Editor’s Note: This article was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence tools to support research and formatting. Final content decisions, including writing, editing, fact-checking, and publication, were completed by TEXPERS staff.