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Next-gen Security Providers Offer Products That Protect Multiple Parts of the IT Supply Chain and Use AI to Find Network Anomalies or Threats

Over the past decade, as businesses have undertaken digital transformation initiatives to improve efficiencies and outcomes, cyberattacks have continued to increase in both frequency and complexity. These cyberattacks are increasingly committed by well-funded criminal and state-sanctioned groups seeking to exploit vulnerabilities and disrupt operations for financial gain or to steal intellectual property and other sensitive data for competitive gains or national intelligence purposes. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses of all sizes have responded to new, unexpected customer and employee needs by accelerating their investments in digital technologies. These investments have not only driven positive business outcomes but have also created new areas of vulnerability for companies across their entire technology supply chain and infrastructure. The increase in the number of endpoints resulting from the exponential growth of mobile computing and Internet of Things (IoT) devices, as well as the larger technology infrastructure surface areas supporting cloud-computing needs, has provided cyber attackers with more areas to potentially exploit and gain unauthorized access. These cyberattacks contribute to a wide variety of adverse outcomes—lost revenue from network downtime, increased costs from ransom payments, fines and/or mitigation spending, lost data integrity, impact to the business from increased reputational risk and, in certain cases, national security risks. As businesses continue to invest in digital transformation to accelerate growth initiatives, the increased threat from cyber criminals will also require larger and more targeted investments in next-generation cybersecurity defense technology to protect digital assets and networks while minimizing the operational and financial costs of a cyberattack.

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Approaching Investing in The Republic of China

China’s economy and markets are not only too large to ignore, but they are now so large that there is a small but growing group of investors who approach China as a specific investment allocation.

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As Globalization Slows and Labor Markets Tighten, Inflation Will Rise

As we settle into the first quarter of 2023, it’s worth discussing the current cycle and the implications for markets in 2023—but the bigger issue is the developing likelihood we have begun to shift into a different economic and market environment, marking a different era than we have seen in the decade-plus since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). 

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Listed REITs Have Likely Priced in a Recession; Analysis Points to a Recovery Next

Investors have priced in a negative, forward-looking view of listed real estate. Slowing growth and higher inflation have created a stagflationary backdrop that has been especially challenging for REITs. The result is that there has been a dramatic performance difference between listed and private real estate in 2022. While REITs, as measured by the FTSE Nareit All Equity REITs Index, are down -27.9% through September and down -21% through November, the NCREIF ODCE index, a measure of private real estate that is calculated quarterly, is up 13% through September on a total return basis. Based on history, we believe that gap in performance will not persist. Indeed, private real estate returns are just beginning to slow as expected. Private real estate typically lags listed real estate due to its slower-moving price discovery and transactions.

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Inflation Regimes and Return Distributions

Goldman Sachs recently released a chart depicting the low or negative correlation between stocks and bonds we have seen over the past few decades. This has been attributable to the low inflationary regime over the period. This makes perfect sense given monetary policy's operation over the last twenty-five years. Counter cyclical policy is very effective in periods of low and stable inflation. When equity markets become concerned about recessions ahead, earnings expectations reduce and valuation multiples contract. Stock prices fall. Bond markets typically would then anticipate the increased chance of the standard monetary policy response; cutting interest rates to spur economic growth. Bond prices rise.

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Right-Sizing Private Investments for the Evolving Pension

Most defined benefit (DB) plans—including public, multi-employer, and even frozen corporate plans—can benefit from private investment (PI) strategies. It is common knowledge that private investments offer important value in the form of increased expected investment returns, and that they can be instrumental in improving funded status. Despite this, many plan sponsors still abruptly cut off PI commitments or do not optimize their usage as the plan matures.

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A Ripe Environment for Value Valuations

As investors who employ a bottom-up process when seeking quality companies, we’re intrigued with the growing valuation discount between our portfolios and their respective indices. We find it compelling that today we can purchase a higher-quality portfolio for a discounted price relative to the index, creating an attractive entry point for our actively managed small- to mid-cap value strategies. But before we get to that, let’s take a step back and look at how we got here.

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Markets and Economy Pivot from Inflation and Monetary Policy Fears to a Weak Global Economy

NEWS RELEASE - Northern Trust, a global asset manager, expects 2023 to be a turbulent year as conditions pivot from inflation and monetary policy fears to a weak global economy, but the firm also expects market volatility to somewhat temper due to lower inflation and a pause in central bank interest rate increases. A reduction in rates is not seen as likely. 

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European Financial Services and the Macro Outlook: Misconceptions and Realities

Political and diplomatic turmoil in Europe have, perhaps inevitably, led to misconceptions about the economic landscape and the continent’s financial services industry. In reality, differences with the US market are far narrower than expected and a significant opportunity exists for an experienced control investor.

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The Energy Transition and the Search for Energy Security: Implications and Opportunities for Listed Infrastructure

Natural gas prices have surged in recent months. Acute supply concerns in Europe have predominantly driven the surge, which has been exacerbated by severe heat waves that have increased demand for power and reduced traditional power generation capacity.

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Is Shipping Cost Inflation About to Peak?

From their peak earlier this year, the spot trucking rates have been in decline, marking a shift versus prior years. Given how impactful the inflation in shipping costs had been across the broader economy from 2020 to 2022, the recent change in trend has widespread implications for many companies.

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Inflation Reduction Act is a Net Positive for Listed Infrastructure

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) addresses three key areas: climate issues, corporate taxes, and healthcare.

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Recessions and Midstream Energy Infrastructure: Why Its Better Today Than Previous Years

 

The Federal Reserve (The Fed) is fighting decades-high inflation with aggressive monetary policy. Many market watchers now expect at least a mild recession in response. The S&P 500 Index's 17.3% loss and the NASDAQ's 25.5% loss year-to-date through 6/24/2022 would suggest equity investors share this concern (year to date, the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ), a midstream energy focused index, is up 9.2%). To understand how midstream might perform through such an environment, we thought a look at history could be helpful.

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ESG Portfolio Monitoring

For institutional investors, ESG-related initiatives are ultimately about managing risk. As noted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a poor environmental record may make a firm vulnerable to legal or regulatory fines/sanctions; socially, the mistreatment of workers and dissatisfied employees may lead to higher absenteeism, lower productivity, and weaker client servicing/relationships; and weak corporate governance may incentivize and/or enable unethical behaviors related to pay, accounting irregularities, and even fraud.1 For all these reasons and more, identifying and addressing material ESG-related issues germane to a corporation is a quintessential exercise in risk management – for the management of that company, for investment managers thinking about holding that security in their investment portfolio, and for asset owners concerned whether the manager is acting in accordance with fund policies.

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Venture Capital’s Unique Ability to Navigate Volatile Markets

Venture capital (VC) has performed extremely well over the last 5, 10, and 15 years, beating the S&P 500 by more than 700 basis points on average.1 Across market cycles, we have witnessed certain vintages reward investors with truly outsize returns, and we feel confident that current conditions could lead to similarly high-returning vintages. As we enter a period that we believe will be defined by less capital raised, smaller fund sizes, slower investment pacing, fewer market participants, and lower valuations, perhaps the time to overweight is now.

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Convertible Investment Study

Convertibles securities' hybrid structure has historically made for a compelling asset class in virtually any market environment. An outright allocation to convertible securities has the potential to provide investors with the best of all worlds – favorable asymmetry of returns through participation in upside momentum along with an important measure of downside protection.

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CLO Equity Opportunities in Dislocations

The Creditflux CLO Hedge Fund Index, an index of CLO debt and equity tranche investment managers, ticked down notably in February (-2.2%) and more significantly in May (-6.0%). These were on the back of a 22-month string of positive returns that began in April 2020, after the initial brunt of the Covid-19 crisis.

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Consensus for 75bps Increase in November, higher Terminal Rate in Intermediate Future

About a half a year has passed since we last updated you with our take on the bond market. Since then, the Federal Reserve has tilted even more hawkishly with 75bp rate increases in their attempt to combat inflation. Unfortunately, they have not made much headway, as August CPI data registered a gain of 8.3% year-over-year, with Ex Food and Energy CPI at 6.3%, both ahead of economists’ and market expectations. These high numbers are not what Fed Governors or the markets were hoping to see as the immediate reaction from both bonds and stocks was a quick sell-off. Making matters even more difficult is the reality that the “sticky” components of inflation, such as rent, posted its largest monthly increase in this cycle since 1986. Inflation on services also touched a new high, as medical care and transportation services helped drive gains. If not for drops in gasoline and other commodities, the latest inflation report would have been even hotter. We believe another 75bps rate increase is all but certain when the Fed meets later in September. While consensus is growing for an additional 75bps in November and a higher terminal rate in our intermediate future, the question becomes whether or not this scenario is fully accounted for in current prices.

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Following a Strong 2021, 2022 Has Been a Tough Year For the Global Economy

Coming off a strong year for corporate earnings and economic growth in 2021, the global economy has been hit with myriad headwinds in 2022. The unfathomable sequence of events occurring in Ukraine is certainly top of mind. Beyond the horrific human tragedy, there has been a significant ripple effect on global commodity prices. This has added to already mounting inflationary pressures from ongoing supply chain problems and has led central banks around the world to expedite their rate hike plans in an attempt to get inflation under control. 

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ABS Market Has Grown in Size and Evolved in Sophistication

In its earlier stages, the asset-backed securities1 (ABS) market securitized a relatively narrow market segment focusing on consumer-centric financial assets and targeted a narrow group of investors. That is no longer the case. Over the past decade, ABS has evolved substantially, surpassing other financial products in its ability to provide an attractive and diverse universe of investment opportunities. Importantly, the evolution and growing sophistication of ABS allows skilled investment teams to tailor portfolios to a growing investor base with a broad range of investment goals.

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