As we settle into the first quarter of 2023, it’s worth discussing the current cycle and the implications for markets in 2023—but the bigger issue is the developing likelihood we have begun to shift into a different economic and market environment, marking a different era than we have seen in the decade-plus since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). 

China’s economy and markets are not only too large to ignore, but they are now so large that there is a small but growing group of investors who approach China as a specific investment allocation.

The author of a new brief from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College finds that state and local pension plans should focus on stabilizing their pension debt as a share of the economy rather than full funding. The alternative of fully prefunding state and local pensions to maintain fiscal sustainability will mean big contribution hikes. 

As conference attendees, finding a convenient and comfortable place to stay can be difficult. Staying at the on-site hotel of a conference venue is more convenient than staying off-site. 

State and local government public pensions weren't among Gov. Greg Abbot's State of the State address on Feb. 16; however, he did discuss the importance of the public education system in Texas, touted previous increases to teacher pay, and said the current legislative session could do even more for the educational system and teachers. 

Political and diplomatic turmoil in Europe have, perhaps inevitably, led to misconceptions about the economic landscape and the continent’s financial services industry. In reality, differences with the US market are far narrower than expected and a significant opportunity exists for an experienced control investor.

Natural gas prices have surged in recent months. Acute supply concerns in Europe have predominantly driven the surge, which has been exacerbated by severe heat waves that have increased demand for power and reduced traditional power generation capacity.

From their peak earlier this year, the spot trucking rates have been in decline, marking a shift versus prior years. Given how impactful the inflation in shipping costs had been across the broader economy from 2020 to 2022, the recent change in trend has widespread implications for many companies.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) addresses three key areas: climate issues, corporate taxes, and healthcare.

The Federal Reserve (The Fed) is fighting decades-high inflation with aggressive monetary policy. Many market watchers now expect at least a mild recession in response. The S&P 500 Index's 17.3% loss and the NASDAQ's 25.5% loss year-to-date through 6/24/2022 would suggest equity investors share this concern (year to date, the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ), a midstream energy focused index, is up 9.2%). To understand how midstream might perform through such an environment, we thought a look at history could be helpful.

For institutional investors, ESG-related initiatives are ultimately about managing risk. As noted by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a poor environmental record may make a firm vulnerable to legal or regulatory fines/sanctions; socially, the mistreatment of workers and dissatisfied employees may lead to higher absenteeism, lower productivity, and weaker client servicing/relationships; and weak corporate governance may incentivize and/or enable unethical behaviors related to pay, accounting irregularities, and even fraud.¹ For all these reasons and more, identifying and addressing material ESG-related issues germane to a corporation is a quintessential exercise in risk management – for the management of that company, for investment managers thinking about holding that security in their investment portfolio, and for asset owners concerned whether the manager is acting in accordance with fund policies.

Venture capital (VC) has performed extremely well over the last 5, 10, and 15 years, beating the S&P 500 by more than 700 basis points on average.¹ Across market cycles, we have witnessed certain vintages reward investors with truly outsize returns, and we feel confident that current conditions could lead to similarly high-returning vintages. As we enter a period that we believe will be defined by less capital raised, smaller fund sizes, slower investment pacing, fewer market participants, and lower valuations, perhaps the time to overweight is now.

Convertibles securities' hybrid structure has historically made for a compelling asset class in virtually any market environment. An outright allocation to convertible securities has the potential to provide investors with the best of all worlds – favorable asymmetry of returns through participation in upside momentum along with an important measure of downside protection.

About a half a year has passed since we last updated you with our take on the bond market. Since then, the Federal Reserve has tilted even more hawkishly with 75bp rate increases in their attempt to combat inflation. Unfortunately, they have not made much headway, as August CPI data registered a gain of 8.3% year-over-year, with Ex Food and Energy CPI at 6.3%, both ahead of economists’ and market expectations. These high numbers are not what Fed Governors or the markets were hoping to see as the immediate reaction from both bonds and stocks was a quick sell-off. Making matters even more difficult is the reality that the “sticky” components of inflation, such as rent, posted its largest monthly increase in this cycle since 1986. Inflation on services also touched a new high, as medical care and transportation services helped drive gains. If not for drops in gasoline and other commodities, the latest inflation report would have been even hotter. We believe another 75bps rate increase is all but certain when the Fed meets later in September. While consensus is growing for an additional 75bps in November and a higher terminal rate in our intermediate future, the question becomes whether or not this scenario is fully accounted for in current prices.

The speed and extent of further monetary tightening in the United States is uncertain, and as a result, there are concerns about the impact of rate hikes on future fixed-income returns. But we do not believe investors should be concerned, and this may even be a buying opportunity.

CHICAGO and LONDON, 7 September 2022 – Northern Trust’s Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) Report, a multi-asset class, five-year investment outlook updated annually, expects global private equity to lead five-year annualized returns at 9.6%. Global high yield and U.K. equities are expected to lead bond and stock returns, at 7.5% each.  Returns are expected to be within a global growth environment that slows to 2.6% annually.

TEXPERS has a section on its website where it publishes requests for proposals, those public documents that announce a project and invite proposals from service providers. 

There are 1.07 million minority-owned firms in the United States with 9.3 million employees and $344.5 billion in annual payroll, according to the 2019 Annual Business Survey.

In its latest meeting, the Texas Pension Review Board's Investment Committee made it clear that it intends to request pension funds to report on how their investment portfolios are structured to meet real-time expectations for outflow benefit payments to retirees. 

Napier Park Global is a Silver Sponsor of TEXPERS' 2022 Summer Educational Forum Aug. 21-23 in El Paso, Texas, and is sending Amit Sanghani, managing director and product specialist for the firm's global credit and real asset strategies.