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Recessions and Midstream Energy Infrastructure: Why Its Better Today Than Previous Years

 

The Federal Reserve (The Fed) is fighting decades-high inflation with aggressive monetary policy. Many market watchers now expect at least a mild recession in response. The S&P 500 Index's 17.3% loss and the NASDAQ's 25.5% loss year-to-date through 6/24/2022 would suggest equity investors share this concern (year to date, the Alerian MLP Index (AMZ), a midstream energy focused index, is up 9.2%). To understand how midstream might perform through such an environment, we thought a look at history could be helpful.

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The Shift to the Cloud

We believe the COVID-19 crisis has facilitated a fundamental reshaping of society in how people shop and pay, along with how businesses interact with their employees, customers, and other businesses.

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Assessing Fair Value

Since mid-January risk markets have experienced elevated volatility and weakness due to fears of the Fed’s tightening policy. Market segments with the highest valuations and most perceived sensitivity to rates have suffered the worst, as many investors took gains after a sustained post-pandemic run. While it is important to not overreact to short-term swings, it’s also important to assess possible downside moves from here based on both technicals and fundamentals. 

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Investment Safari: Growth, Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, and Style Are The Top Game

Blog post banner. Man looks through binoculars on African safari. Title reads: A closer look at the big five.

In the world of safaris, “the big five” are highly prized among sightseers and photographers: the lion, leopard, black rhinoceros, elephant, and buffalo. But in investing, the big five could more aptly refer to the connected categories of growth, inflation, interest rates, valuations, and style.

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Emerging Markets, Localized Opportunities

While we are favorable on the overall outlook for emerging markets (EMs), there is a wide disparity in the pace and stage of their recoveries from economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. While gross domestic product (GDP) expectations for all EMs decreased significantly because of the pandemic, this delta is significantly smaller for countries such as China that were among the first to experience widespread infections and implement measures to control the pandemic.

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